AUDNZD - KIWI Is Now On The Back Foot by DanV on TradingView.com
14 January 2015
Last chart of AUDNZD was published about a month ago. Some critiques dismissed both my chart analysis. Nevertheless this has been very profitable for bearish trade. Well the critiques will not have any arguments now and those who took note will have had lots of opportunity to profit from the steep decline.
Still I would suggest strongly that you keep that chart as longer term perspective roadmap for now whilst changing tack to the long side as follow:
1. We have now completed the last wave 5 of much larger bearish cycle. This wave also is now clearly defined and suggested it has completed to even minor scale.
2. If correct we should now either get complete reversal with 5 impulsive waves to the upside. Alternatively, a conservative expectation would be to see ABC zizgag retrace to 38.2 -50% fib retracement of the entire decline as noted on the chart to around 1.20.
3. Future price action will provide clearer view as we continue to trade this to the upside.
4. In the new bullish cycle be it retracement of new 5 waves we have initial minor wave very mature. So any long will be advisable on retracement.
Indeed I have no clues on fundamentals as to why price actions should do what I am suggesting. May be some recovery on many of the commodity prices, better news from China or some other factors, That I will leave it to you if you have the aptitude and resources to do the calculations. For me it is my interpretation of EW that is the only basis and normal retracement that always takes place in all markets.
As always do your own analysis based on your requirement. Select to follow me & the chart and show your appreciation by thumbs up, comments or share alternative idea if you feel some other scenario is likely.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV