BTCUSD by DanV on TradingView.com
18 October 2013
Bitcoin - I hear about this earlier this year and just ignored it. I still do not fully understand the instrument nor do I plan to trade it immediately, though will keep it under review. However, from charting perspective, it is very interesting and comparable to many stock or instruments that started their early history and experienced price progression. To say the least it is fairly volatile and probably still lack the volume to help proper price development.
However, as you can see it would appear that we might have wave 3 top in the spike high and are retracing or congesting in wave 4. This could take the form of a triangle as outlined in pink above (to consume more time before able to stage a next move) or more likely a running flat where the normal zigzag correction forms lower low and lower high before reverting to the upside, where as in here we could have that still forming higher high but part of wave 4 correction.
That would also fit the possible correlation to Dollar Index which I have shown in the bottom window. My longer term Dollar Index analysis suggest that in the next week or so we might make intermediate bottom and then retrace in possible abc zigzag to the upside which you attain the upside target of 82 - 83 area before reverting to downside. During this period I suspect the BTCUSD will likewise trade in side way range.
I know many of you will not agree with me and BTCUSD may have some dynamics which I cannot appreciate from the chart and it is headed to the moon so to speak. Yet based on what I can see could well be a good guide to future price projection however, unlike it might appear. I am willing to accept that due to short price history Elliot Wave analysis might be not possible. But still wish to point out possible development which could be very interesting. Any constrictive observations will be welcomed.