BTCUSD - STILL REMAINS IN OVERALL BEARISH CYCLE - (UPDATE) by DanV on TradingView.com
10 May 2015
In my last published chart some 2 months ago following the spike low around 151, I made provisional adjusted to the wave counts to reflect the price action still suggesting that the bearish cycle is still in action and has further to go. The reason for this was that bounce from 150 - 300 is not in clear 5 waves, rather it is in 3 swing zigzag.
Hence, in making the adjustment to the counts I concluded that the wave 3 has extended as is often the case with wave 3 and in the process forming the low at 151. Resulting price action since then was part of wave 4 retracement, which appears to have formed a zigzag with the second leg stopping short of the previous one giving as a double top (slightly lower than first).
The decline since could be part of the final zigzag (wave 5) to the downside as part of a larger wave C of Ending Diagonal (falling wedge) of 3-3-3-3-3 construction which commenced in Jan 2014 high.
If correct then the wave 5 of the ending diagonal could reach 120 - 90 zone. We will have better idea of its final target zone as we see it develop.
The wave C as ending diagonal shown in the Log scale on this main chart is less clear compared with the arithmetic scale. Therefore as comparison and enhancing the understanding to this bear cycle I am posting additional charts as follows:
Other notes are shown on each of the charts for ease of reference.
Also note that In my last short term published chart based on H4 where I suggested that wave 4 could go to higher level is now less likely as I think the wave 4 top is in place and wave 5 is now in process.
I could host a live session next week to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your comments and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled, follow me on my Youtube channel and register at danv-charting.com and to obtain a link to join me and be notified.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most5 but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV