Bitcoin Chart 25

BTCUSD - In Potential Interim Trend Change (Retracement Bounce)

BTCUSD - IN POTENTIAL INTERIM TREND CHANGE (RETRACEMENT BOUNCE) by DanV on TradingView.com

24 June 2015

Updates and comments

Please for details, my last published chart 4 (Hr) 2 months ago following the spike low around 151 originally outlining possible 380- 400 upside target which then looked not likely is potential back. 

We have been following our daily time frame chart which I have been using as our Road Map and have served us well. 

The larger falling wedge we have been tracking is now severely stretched, so even though it has potential for completing it, the recent sideways price action seems to suggest that we might need to prepare for alternative scenario, which I outlined as possible in my live Hangout (March 2015)

It might prove premature for this speculative move in interim trend change but serious enough that we should now contemplate it with clear invalidation level in order not to miss major profitable move nor be caught on the wrong side.

After making 151 low and moving tom 305 high in 3 swing zigzag, we have been moving in what now looks like possible contracting triangle (of 3-3-3-3-3 construction). If correct we are in final stage of that concluding with possible low around 225 ideally but could spike at 220 which would be invalidation level. 

If 225 - 220 holds then we could stage a possible 5 wave move which could be potentially very strong with 380- 420 as initial price target but could go lot higher. 

So here is the summary:

1. Possible move from Nov 2013 high to 151 low could be complex WXY zigzag. 
2. If correct then move since 151 low could be abc zigzag with 305 high making wave "a" and triangle since wave "b" near completion. 
3. For this bullish case to play out we need ideally 225 but absolute low of 220 area to hold otherwise it would be invalidated. 
4. Provided the 225 -220 holds we could move in potentially strong 5 wave move. 
5. Upside target of AB=CD measured move could give us 380 with some other fib confluence to 420. However, potentially higher prices even in the 800 range would not be out of question and future price data will give us more clues. 

Caution: 

No matter how high the price might reach, it is important to note that this will be only retracement bounce retracing the decline from Nov 2013 to recent 151 low not a new Bullish Cycle. Meaning that on completion we will drop to retest 151 zone or make new lower low. 

I could host a live session soon to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your comments with thumbs up and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled, and register at danv-charting.dom to be notified and to obtain a link to join me. 

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most5 but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. 

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others and follow me on my Youtube channel and Google+ . If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from. 

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. 

DanV

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