BTCUSD - Outlook for 2016 -17 with 4 possibilities by DanV on TradingView.com
19 January 2016
NOTE: Please keep in mind that just because I have drawn particular line or suggested a target does not mean I will cause the price to follow that path. I say this because many appear to have religious like zeal for BTCUSD to move forever upwards without any retracement where suggesting anything else is a gross sin.
Also I am ignoring all the positive and negative new developments and accept that I don't really know nor understand any of this.
Analysis
Due to limited availability of price history longer term EW counts are near impossible. Therefore, it is possible as I have explained in previous charts publication we could assume Nov 2013 top as lager wave . If this is correct then we could have:
1. Jan 2015 low as possible wave and that we have started a possible expanding ending diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction which could see retest of 2013 high or make marginal new high to complete the larger cycle of 5 waves (please see chart below for details).
2. as per No1. but that we are forming a contracting triangle since Nov 2013 high as wave as shown in the chart which means we could continue to chop about in tighter range till we complete this before breaking to upside to retest the Nov 2013 high or make marginal new high.
OR Possibly that we have November 2013 High as major top of 5 wave cycle
3. Then what we are seeing since is retracement of the entire cycle. Under this scenario we have Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low as 1st zigzag. Since when we have made a corrective zigzag to the upside with spike high in Nov 2015. If this proves to be correct then we could see another larger zigzag to the downside as illustrated on that chart. Based on AB-CD patter where we consider percentage drop from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low and apply this from Nov 2015 spike high we get possible downside target of in the proximity of 65 which incidentally is also an area of wave 4 of one degree lower cycle often the area for retracement based on EW principle.
4. As per 3 above but with Nov 2015 spike high as being 1st part of the zigzag retracement to the upside where we could drop to 250 area and make another zigzag with upside target around 650 area as shown in the P&F chart below. Once the upside retracement is complete we could then drop in second zigzag at least to Jan 2015 low or make new low towards 65 zone.
It is interesting that Nov 2013, 2014 proved to be spike highs of the cycle. Could Nov 2015 also be the spike high of the cycle and that we now continue lower as per 3 above? Time will tell. Once we have some clarity, I will republish chart accordingly.
Conclusion: Due to the length of time for correction and lack of bullish counts to the upside. I am leaning on scenarios 3 or 4.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV