BTCUSD - IN INTERMEDIATE TERM BEARISH CYCLE by DanV on TradingView.com
24 February 2016
NOTE: Please keep in mind that just because I have drawn particular line or suggested a target does not mean it will cause the price to follow that path exactly. I say this because many appear to have religious like zeal for BTCUSD to move forever upwards without any retracement where suggesting anything else is a gross sin.
Also I am ignoring all the positive and negative new developments and anticipated "Halving" in July 2016, accepting that I don't really understand any of this nor can anyone say with certainty how it might impact the price this time round.
Analysis
This is an intermediate chart to the main one posted earlier which outlined 4 possible outcomes. Price action to date for 2016 has been rather disappointing. If this worrisome price action is to be negated then breaking above 450 - 500 is very important. Till then the potential negative observations are:
1. Having spiked high in Nov 2015 it is in potentially LL & LH sequence.
2. It has failed at 78.6% Fib retracement of subsequent decline 300 low.
3. Also failed at upper parallel of the bearish Schiff Pitchfork .
4. Has now failed to break and hold above 1st Jan 2016 high for the second time.
5. RSI failure at 70 and MACD about to turn down in series of LLs & LHs.
6. The price action since Nov spike high might be forming running flat.
7. Potentially major highs posted in Nov 2013, Nov 2014 and now Nov 2016 could be saying something unless we make a strong move to the upside very soon.
Conclusion:
1. For Bullish view it is now very critical that price holds above 400 - 380 which might support a minor bullish triangle.
2. Any weakness should hold above 300 zone in the proximity of rising channel line support.
3. Below that is a potential retest of the Aug 2015 low.
Webinar: I am hosting a webinar on 27th February 2016 discussing various possible scenarios and what to look out for 2016/17 and other profitable opportunities. To attend please register at https://www.danv-charting.com/live-bitcoin-webinar.html
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV