EURUSD - Could it be the "come back kid"? - Updated. by DanV on TradingView.com
30 November 2014
Updates and comments
Since publishing the last chart almost 3 weeks ago, the anticipated low appears to have formed in the shape of rising wedge or leading diagonal as minor wave 1 and subsequent retracement could be near completion suggesting wave 2 could provide higher low and confirmation would be higher prices in the coming week.
You should still take close look at the chart and details including some additional charts in the comments in the last chart to save repeating here.
With above in mind, now would be a good time to consider reasons why we should look for evidence of this low being respected. Rather than be carried over with over exuberance Anti - EURUSD fever and EUR bashing. This is not to say that the Eurozone itself is out on the woods yet but a decent retracement is in order at the minimum and that it could be at the inflection point with potential reversal on the horizon.
1. Seasonal is now supportive of EURUSD gaining Vs USD Check the link : http://www.equityclock.com/charts/euro-forex-fxeur-seasonal-chart/
2. Commitment of Traders report of 18th Nov 2014 seems to be suggesting longs reducing position and shorts increasing which I suspect has gone more extreme. The scheduled report on Monday (normally released on Friday but due to holiday on Thursday is delayed) will likely confirm - Link: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm
3. Overwhelming, traders sentiments is very bearish which in it self cannot help time the market precisely but add to overall analysis when considered in conjunction with other factors.
4. In the intermarket & correlation analysis it seems that DXY could have topped at critical level I will post this chart in the comments section with both daily and intraday hourly chart which if correct would also confirm corresponding bottom in EURUSD.
As this is long range analysis, it is not possible to pinpoint exact level but only identify general area of interest.
Any trades should be based on your own analysis and confirmation with suitable money management.
If you have viable alternatives rather than just saying EUR is doomed, please share it with me.
If have not already select to follow me and the chart for future updates and comments.
Thanks for you time reading through my analysis.
DanV