EURUSD - At Least A Relief Rally Could Be In Store by DanV on TradingView.com
11 January 2015
Updates and comments
In my last EURUSD chart I outlined reasons for possible bullish move. The weakness since then has not completely removed a possibility of strong rally no matter how remote that might sound right now.
There are many fundamental and political cross current at play and could complicate any attempt to analyse this pair along with most USD Pairs. However, from Elliott Wave perspective we appear to have completed or are close to completing the 5 wave move from last high in May 2014.
If this is correct then we could expect a reversal or at least the retracement of the decline by 38.2% (a common fib ratio) could be the minimum expectation.
Technicals to note are:
1. Overwhelming bearish sentiments for EURUSD and COT report suggesting an increasing short interest.
2. At a Nov 2005 low that could act as potential support.
3. At a potential support line of MACD which also coincide with Stretched ADX as it did with Nov 2008 low, June 2010 low, Aug 2012 low.
4. Seasonal trend suggest potential low in Late Jan - Feb time frame. Potential time symmetry (See chart in updates and comments) suggesting mid to late Jan for potential low to form.
Therefore a retracement is what could be expected and bearish move to the downside now would be limited and get very risky trade.
Future longer term prospect for EURUSD and other USD Pairs depends on if the 5 wave decline since May 2014 high become a larger wave 1 of a much longer bearish cycle or completes the bearish cycle. There are no way of knowing that right now.
Therefore once the low is formed the nature of bounce would give further clues for longer term prospects. Will be observing that with keen interest.
As always, please do your own analysis for your requirement, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates and indicate with Thumb-Up, if you like the analysis. Leave constructive comments so we can all learn from it.
Thank you for your taking the time to check my analysis.