GOLD Is Unloved - Could this lead to a capitulation? by DanV on TradingView.com
14 July 2014
In the last published chart, I highlighted the short term triangle with expectation of bearish resolution. This duly took place though the downside target of 1220 zone was not met. Since then the rally has been in what appears to be 3 swings ie abc, not impulsive, but corrective.
Therefore, I have revisited the move of the Dec 2013 low and whilst it looks very convincing as impulsive 5 wave up and I was willing to accept that, though it was not entirely clear and fits more a 3 swing move.
Consequently, with the complete overview from Sept 2011 high I am concluding that we are still in larger Wave 4 correction forming 1st Zigzag to Dec 2011 low followed by wxy move to October 2012 high as larger X wave.
Since then we have 5 wave decline to June 2013 low as wave A, followed by a triangle to recent high forming wave B and now we could be in early development of wave C unfolding in 5 wave decline. Hence new downside target could be well below last 3 lows namely 1100 as conservative or even 1000 as round number. This could be the despair phase leading to potential capitulation low.
Upon completion of this double zigzag we should resume the major uptrend to retest Sept 2011 high or make new higher high.
This is in contrast to many Elliotwave Analyst expecting this entire move from Sept 2011 high to be 5 waves decline suggesting a multi year sideways to bearish decline.
Remember, this is my interpretation of the price action and application of Elliotwave along with standard technical analysis. You must do your own analysis for your trade planning.