NZDUSD Chart 6

NZDUSD - Longer Term Bullish Play
As Kiwi Might Fly

NZDUSD - LONGER TERM BULLISH PLAY AS KIWI MIGHT FLY. by DanV on TradingView.com

1 June 2015

Updates and comments

There are wide spread negative views for most USD pairs on the basis that FED might raise rates at some stage which would support USD strength. In the light of this it seems impossible for NZDUSD to form low in this area. 

I admit that I could be completely wrong and if so will not have to wait to find out. 

However, looking at the KIWI chart on Monthly, supports the view based on my interpretation of Elliott Wave Principle that we could be close to forming a major low and that NZDUSD could move up to retest 2014 high or most likely make a new higher high in the proximity of 0.93 -0.95 (See Monthly Chart in updates and comments)  

Summary of technicals:

1. Since 1985 low, it appears that we are in expanded Flat Correction of previous decline. Wave A and B are of 3 swings each therefore based on EW principles Wave C should be of 5 waves. 
2. If correct then we are progressing in wave C which commenced from 2000 low. 
3. Wave C could be in the form of Ending Diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction of which we could have waves 1, 2, 3 complete and now wave 4 almost appear to be complete or is likely too very soon. (Please see Monthly chart in updates and comments for 1 -3 above) 
4. Using the daily chart we note that the decline from 2014 high has been in abc zizgag of which wave c is expanding ending diagonal also of 3-3-3-3-3 construction with confluence of several fib ratios as noted in the chart. 
5. We have clear RSI divergence noted both in monthly - daily time frame charts. 
6. We have retraced approximately 66.67% of 2009 low to 2014 high (Gann percentage which equates to 2/3rd). 

Hence, I will be on the look out on H4 charts for confirmation to consider long trade in this area or little lower. 

Please Note: 

The schematic price path shown on the chart is only an outline of anticipated directional move and not necessarily the exact highs and lows. 

This is a very long term play and it would be absolutely normal for retracement along the way and sharp bounce would not necessarily alter the overall price path anticipated. This would offer shorter term swing trades in both direction. 

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. 

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share it for all to learn from. 

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. 

DanV 

Back to all NZDUSD charts

This Form cannot be submitted until the missing fields (labelled below in red) have been filled in
Contact
Please note that all fields followed by an asterisk must be filled in.
First Name*
Last Name*
E-Mail Address*
My question is*
GDPR*	I am at least 16 years of age. I have read and accept the privacy policy. I understand that you will use my information to contact me or send me the information I requested.
Please enter the word that you see below.