USDJPY - Major Trend Reversal by DanV on TradingView.com
12 May 2014
There are many commentators and fundamental analyst as they continue to review and propagate how brilliant Abenomic is and how they will continue to flood the world with YEN in the form of Japan's version of QE. YEN will continue to weaken beyond anyone's expectation and warped view of seemingly continued massive USD strength going forward.
I think this is over cooked prognosis as it is not one way street and there are many cross current and very complex forces at work that are not easy to easily comprehend and analyse in my view.
So, I am venturing on my analysis entirely based on price and am not afraid of being wrong with the proviso that I reserve the right to review my analysis when price demands that I do so.
With that background, I think you will agree that on this daily chart we have what I believe is major cycle top, and have already declined of Jan 2014 high in 5 waves decline which appears to me in the form of expanding triangle or Expanding Leading Diagonal to complete (i) and subsequent abc retracement just over 61.8% to form wave (ii). If this is correct, then we are now in very early stage of wave (iii) and should begin to build downside momentum specially as we break below 100.5 - 100 which many will consider as support zone.
Should the price action unfolds as I suspect then this could be a fantastic long term short trade rivalling the trade from 2012 low to recent high. I am using the daily price chart in order to outline the details that are indicating to me that we have already commenced the major bearish cycle.
Question is what is the downside target. I would say 50% retracement of the move from 2012 low to recent high that would be approx around 90. However I think downside will me much lower ie new lower low or retest of 2012 low. I will show this in subsequent charts of larger time frame.
So make sure you select to follow me and the chart as I will be posting several charts to outline my overall view.